Bias and Performance

Imagine a new referee is needed for the Steelers Bengals game.   Who would a Bengals fan want?  Who would a Steelers fan want?   Who would be best?

The best is obvious.  The best choice would be a judge who lived in Alaska for all his or her life, and had never met anyone from either place.

The bad news is that nobody can find a judge like that.   Nobody can find a ref like that.   Imagine that the only choices are people nominated by Bengals fans or people nominated by Steelers fans.   This isn't so bad.   Either side might nominate someone from Montana or Canada, Rhode Island or Guam.

Neither of them do that.   The only nominees are lifetime residents of either town, residents who have attended multiple home games.   When a job comes open, it is either a Cincinnati boy or a Pittsburgh one.

In this example it is no big deal.   Now imagine someone from Pittsburgh gets to hire whoever he or she wants, imagine the job is a lifetime appointment, and imagine that hire has a Pittsburgh forever tattoo on his arm.




(POORLY WRITTEN) 


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Regarding bias....

Anyone who thinks a person can't have a strong feeling and still do the job, ought to ask a teacher if they have ever failed a student they loved to have in class.

The non delegation theory in constitutional law- Notes from A Jon Stewart Podcast about the SEC

 This legal view is a tool of right wing jurisprudence.

Congress makes the laws.  However, those laws must be vague in order to cover as many eventualities as possible.

How should we handle something like financial regulation or environmental regulation?  Should Congress, completely non specialists write these rules and vote on them?

That is impossible.   It's pragmatically impossible.

What is typically done is this: Congress writes a law to create an agency that will get into the necessary weeds.

Create an agency to foster capital formation and investor confidence.  That's the SEC.  It must have some political independence like the DOJ.  It must be a cop on the beat.

The current theory is that such a statement of intent is not clear enough.   

If this is the case almost all regulatory agencies are under threat here.  

Everything is Obvious- How Common Sense Fails Us

EVERYTHING IS OBVIOUS- HOW COMMON SENSE FAILS US

by Duncan J Watts
c2011

As sociologists are fond of pointing out, many of these aphorisms appear to be direct contradictions of each other.   Birds of a feather flock together, but opposites attract.   Absence indeed makes the heart grow fonder, but out of sight out of mind.   Look before you leap, but he who hesitates is lost.   -17

In countless experiments, for example, psychologists have shown that an individual's choices and behavior can be influenced by "priming" them with particular words, sounds or other stimuli.   Subjects in experiments who read words like "old" and "frail" walk more slowly down the corridor when they leave the lab.  Consumers in wine stores are more likely to buy German wine when German music is playing in the background and French wine when French music is playing.   Survey respondents asked about energy drinks are more likely to name Gatorade when they are given a green pen in order to fill out the survey.   And shoppers looking to buy a couch online are more likely to pot for an expensive, comfortable-looking couch when the background of the website is of fluffy white clouds, and more likely to buy the harder, cheaper option when the background consists of dollar coins.  -39

And they are more likely to believe a written statement if the font is easy to read....

Yes! 50 Scientifically Proven Ways to be Persuasive

Yes!  50 Scientifically Proven Ways to be Persuasive

By Noah Goldstein, Steve J Martin, and Robert Cialdini These results show that what most others are doing acts as a "magnetic middle," meaning that people who deviate from the average tend to be drawn to the average like metal filing to a magnet--they change their actions to be more in line with the norm regardless of whether they were previously behavior in a socially desirable or a socially undesirable way. -27 

 Giving children choices in what books they'd like to read or what dinner they'd like to eat can undoubtedly be beneficial, but too many choices might be overwhelming and ultimately demotivating. The old saying may well assert that variety is the spice of life, but as the scientific research demonstrates, in some circumstances, too much variety, like too much spice, can be the ingredient that spoils the dish and, as a result, spoils your efforts at persuasion. -34 

 For example, suppose you were part of organization that decided to pay for you to attend an educational conference taking place on a cruise shi, and that you wanted to stay in a room with a window. Rather than simply asking your manager his or her opinion about the window room, you can bookend that choice with two other possibilities--one that's not as nice (a windowless inside cabin) and one that's clearly better but may be viewed as too expensive (a room with a balcony.) -40 

 This research clearly shows the value of giving gifts that are significant, unexpected, and personalized. --55 

 This strategy, known as the labeling technique, involves assigning a trait, attitude, belief, or other label to a person, and then making a request of that person consistent with that label. -69 

For instance, research one of us conducted with several colleagues showed that when teachers tell children that they seem like the kind of students who care about having good handwriting, the kids spent more of their free time practicing their handwriting--even when they thought no one was around to watch. -71 

 The lesson? Display your diplomas, certificates, and awards to those you want to persuade. You've earned those credentials, and, in turn, they'll help you earn your audience's trust. -97 

 Although many companies typically focus their training exclusively on the positive-in other words, on how to make good decisions- the results of this study suggest that a sizable portion of the training should be devoted to how others have made errors in the past and how those errors could have been (and can be) avoided. -108 

 In other words, be sure to follow your discussion of a drawback with a positive aspect that's related to, and that neutralizes, the drawback. In other words, when life gives us lemons, we should try to make lemonade, not apple juice. -118 

 [An example of the value of matching someone's language] To take one example, many food servers have found that they receive larger tips when they repeat their customers' orders back to them exactly as the customer verbalized it. -133 

 In fact, social psychologists Tanya Chartrand and John Bargh argue that matching the behavior of others creates feeling of liking and strengthens bonds between two people. In one experiment, the researchers set up a situation in which a research assistant either mirrored the posture and behavior of a subject. [. . . ] The researchers found that the participants who had been mirrored liked the research assistant more and felt that the interaction was smoother than did participants whose behavior had not been mirrored. -134 

 With lead researcher Petia Petrova, one of us conducted a series of studies showing that encouraging customers to imagine themselves experiencing the delights of a restaurant or holiday destination only increases the desire to visit if it's easy to imagine doing so. -157 

 According to social scientists Adam Alter and Daniel Oppenheimer, people tend to have a greater affection for words and names that are easy to pronounce (that is, those that have a high degree of fluency) that those that are hard to pronounce. -159 

 [Could this principle apply to fluency in sentences?] In a similar vein, researchers have found that the persuasiveness of a handwritten message is influenced by the quality of the handwriting: The worse the handwriting, the less persuasive the message will be. Readers mistakenly interpret the sense of difficulty they feel when they read a message with bad handwriting as a sense of difficulty believing the content of the message. -161 

 Additional research, by Oppenheimer has shown that using overly complex language like this can produce the exact opposite of the intended effect. Because the audience has difficulty interpreting the language, the message is deemed less convincing and the author is perceived to be less intelligent. -162 [Word Choice!] The researchers found that even though all the participants in the study strongly held the belief that rhyming was in no way an indicator of accuracy, they nontheless perceived the statements that rhymed as more accurate than those that didn't. The researchers explained that rhyming phrases are characterized by greater processing fluency: They're mentally processed more easily than nonrhyming phrases. Because peopel tend to base accuracy evaluations, at least party, on the perceived fluency of the incoming information, the rhyming statements are actually judged as more accurate. -165 

 Educators and parents can also benefit from such a strategy. Imagine taht you child is being particularly stubborn about doing his homework and you feel compelled to try incentives. If you decide to give him one full Saturday at the zoo for every six weekends in which he does his homework, you might find that he would be especially motivated to comply if you started him off with "credit" for one weekend before your little program officially begins. -172 

 Unexpected decriptive names, such as Kermit green, are effective because they act as a sort of puzzle to be solved, which typically leads people to consider more aspects of the products--particularly the positive ones.  Although solving this little puzzle may not qualify consumers to join Mensa, it may create an "aha" moment that could lead them to associate positive emotions with the product.  -175

Using a variety of names for jelly bean flavors and for swearer colors, Miller and Kahn confirmed that products with unexpected descriptive and ambiguous names were in fact regarded as more desirable thatn were those of hte other two category types.  -175

Behavioral scientists Christopher Hsee and Yuval Rottensctreich have asserted that people's jusgment and decision-making abilities can be impaired by any emotionally charged issue., regardless of the positivity or negativity of the feelings it produces.  They argue that emotions lead people to become less sensitive to differences in the magnitude of number, in other words, peopl are more lifely to pay attention to the simple presence or absence of an even as opposed to the specific numbers that characterize the event.

Four Chord Song- The Title List

my life is brilliant
forever young
i wont hesitate no more no more
this is the way you left me
cause you were amazing
if i could then i would
CAN YOU FEEL THE LOVE TONIGHT
and she will be loved
she will be loved

pictures of you   pictures of me   hung upon your wall for the world to see
cause I can't live                      WITH OR WITHOUT YOU

whenever i fall               AT YOUR FEET
you let your tears
am I not pretty enough?

when i find myself in times of trouble
sometimes I feel like i dont have a partner
that's the way its gonna be little darling
ride it on the horses YEAH YEAH
no woman no cry

PHISH SHOWS I HAVE SEEN

8/10/97
8/11/97
8/2/98
8/3/98
11/14/98
7/25/99
7/26/99
12/4/99
12/30/99
12/31/99
1/01/00
7/10/00
7/11/00
7/12/00
9/20/00
2/21/03
2/22/03
7/23/03
6/23/04
6/24/04

11/20/2009
11/21/2009

Deer Creek
Riverbend
US Bank Arena
Lawrence joel coliseum
Polaris
The Ryman
Trey at the Taft
Big Sky- 2000 spot

Books I Have Read

Ken Wilber
Fredrick Copleston
     A History of Philosophy  4 volumes
Friedrich Nietzsche
Noam Chomsky
    Acts of Agression
    What Uncle Sam Really Wants
    Manufacturing Consent
Mark Zepezaur
    Take the Rich Off Welfare
    The CIAs greatest hits
Howard Zinn
    A People's History of the United States
Stephen Pinker
     The Language Instinct
      Better Angels of Our Nature
The Secret Life of Pronouns
Dr Paul Ekman
Henry Hitchings
     The Language Wars
Dr John McWhorter
The Talent Code
Charles Duhgig
    The Power of Habit
Alan Alter
     Drunk Tank Pink
Willpower
The Straight A Conspiracy
Lynn Truss   Eat Shoots and Leaves,  Talk to the Hand
Hesiod
    Words and Days/ Theogony
Hayler and Sunstein
     Nudge
Ori Brafman and Rom Brafman
      Sway
Wray Herbert
      On Second Thought


Dan Arielly 
    The Upside of Irrationality
    Predictably Irrational
Michael Shermer,
    Why People Believe Weird Things
Tom Robbins
    Still Life With Woodpecker
    Another Roadside Attraction
    Skinny Legs and All
    Jitterbug Perfume
 
Kurt Vonnegut
   Cats Crade
   God Bless You Mr Rosewater
   Welcome to the Monkey House
   Bluebeard
   Breakfast of Champions
   Slaughterhouse Five
   Wompeters Foma and Granfalloons

Piers Anthony
   Xanth series
   Incarnations of Immortality Series

Dragonlance
   Chronicles
   Legends

Drizzt:
   Icewind Dale Trilogy
   Homeland Trilogy

Thomas Pynchon
       Gravity's Rainbow

Jane Austen
       Northanger Abbey
       Mansfield Park

Saul Bellow
  Henderson the Rain King

JD Salinger
  Raise High the Roof Beam Carpenters
  Nine Stories
  Franny and Zooey
  The Catcher in the Rye

JK Rowling
   The first four

James Morrow
   Only Begotten Daughter
   I know why the something whale sings


 


NONFICTION
    Everything is Obvious  by Duncan J Watts
    Innumerancy
    The Peter Principle
     Acid Dreams
    Moonwalking With Einstein  by Jonathan
    Tricks of the Mind by Derren Brown
     Irrationality by Dan Arielly
     Influence by Robert Cialdini
     Paul Ekman on lies and basic facial expressions
     The Worldly Philosophers b Robert Heilbroner
     Milton Freidman   Free to Choose
     Ayn Rands boy toy named Nathanial Brandan The Virtue of Selfishness
     Godel Escher Bach   by Douglas Hofstadter
  MICHAEL LEWIS
      Liars Poker
      Flash Boys

NASIM TALIB
     Black Swan

CARLSON AND GRAHAM HANCOCK
    Magicians of the Gods

R BUCKMINSTER FULLER
    Guinea Pig B

Robert Anton Wilson
    ALL OF IT.

    YES.


    YOU HEARD ME

    ALL OF IT.
 

NLP
    Richard Bandler
    Robert Diltz
    Milton Erickson
    More I'm sure....



POETRY

RUMI

BUKOWSKI

HAFIZ

CUMMINS

SUNDIATA

WHITMAN

FROST

ROBERT BLY

AR AMMONS

DR SEUSS

MAYA ANGELOU

PABLO NERUDA

YEATS

WALLACE STEVENS

LORCA

FERLINGHETTI

CORSO

SAUL WILLIAMS

PUSHKIN

WISLAWA O, the polish lady whose name I can't remember.

Be Angry at the Sun

BASHO

ISSA

KABIR

SILVERSTEIN

EMILY DICKENSON

TS ELIOT

WILLIAM CARLOS WILLIAMS      "This is just to say......"

Sex Without Love

Please Don't Steal My Air Jordans

RIMBAUD

BAUDELAIRE

BYRON

COLERIDGE




Innumeracy
Everything is Obvious
Fredrick Copleston History of Philosophy volumes 4 6 and one i dont remember

Cliff Notes
Oh shit this will be a long list.



PERSONAL EXPERIENCE STUFF

AJ Jacobs
   The Year of Living Biblically
   Drop Dead Healthy

Confessions of an Economic Hit Man

Tim Ferris
   4 HOUR BODY
   4 HOUR CHEF









AUDIOBOOKS AND LECTURE SERIES

Daniel Robinson
      Great Ideas In Philosophy
      Great Ideas in Psychology

Brooks Landon
      Sentences, making them awesome.

Heidegger professor
     Lots of lecture audio from 2 courses.   I'm not sure I ever figured it out.

Alan Dershowitz
    Controversial cases that always seem to be on the side of the rich guy

Seth Lehrer
    The History of the English Language

J Rufus Fears
    Life Lessons from Great Books

Bart Ehrman
   The Historical Jesus




Dan Carlin
    All of them.

John McWhorter



The Narcissist Next DOor
John Allen Paulos
Innumeracy:Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences
Deborah Meier et al
Many Children Left Behind
Mel Levine
A Mind Left Behind

Charles Panati
     Extraordinary Origins of Profound Things
     Extraordinary Origins of Everyday Things